Bringing it home

Industry is coming back to the USA.  Some call it “insourcing” or "onshoring".

Yesterday Apple CEO Tim Cook announced a $100 million investment returning the manufacture of Mac computers to the USA in 2013: “We’ve been working for years on doing more and more in the United States.” He added that he hoped it would spur on more U.S. manufacturing. “The consumer electronics world was really never here. It’s a matter of starting it here.”  Whether this is the start of something bigger or an attempt at good PR in Washington, the Apple announcement comes on the heels of GE’s recent reintroduction of its appliance manufacturing assembly lines to its Louisville Kentucky “Appliance Park” which had been languishing since the 1980s decision to shift manufacturing to China.  The GE initiative is costing $800 million and CEO Jeffrey Immelt said, “I do that because I think we can do it here and make more money.”  The Atlantic Magazine December 2012 contains a fascinating article on the topic entitled “The Insourcing Boom”.

Global economic factors are now in play:-

·         Oil prices are three times what they were in 2000, making cargo-ship fuel much more expensive now than it was then.

·         The natural-gas boom in the U.S. has dramatically lowered the cost for running something as energy-intensive as a factory in the USA. (Natural gas now costs four times as much in Asia as it does in the U.S.)

·         In US dollars, wages in China are some five times what they were in 2000—and they are expected to keep rising 18 percent a year.

·         American unions are changing their priorities. Appliance Park’s union was so fractious in the ’70s and ’80s that the place was known as “Strike City.” That same union agreed to a two-tier wage scale in 2005—and today, 70 percent of the jobs there are on the lower tier, which starts at just over $13.50 an hour, almost $8 less than what the starting wage used to be.

·         U.S. labor productivity has continued its long march upward, meaning that labor costs have become a smaller and smaller proportion of the total cost of finished goods.

The compressed and ever shortening product cycle, coupled with the adaptation of "mature" products such as dishwashers and water heaters to include computer software to improve efficiency and functionality also drives changes to factory processes.  Factories take a while to settle into a new product, a new design. They face a learning curve. But models that have a run of only a couple years become outdated just as the assembly line starts to hum. That, too, makes using faraway factories challenging, even if they are cheap.

GE is rediscovering that how you run the factory is a technology in and of itself. The R&D that can happen there, if you pay attention, is worth a lot more to the bottom line than the cost savings of cheap labor in someone else’s factory. GE’s appliance unit does $5 billion in business—and today, 55 percent of that revenue comes from products made in the United States. By the end of 2014, GE expects 75 percent of the appliance business’s revenue to come from American-made products like dishwashers, water heaters, and refrigerators, and the company expects that its sales numbers will be larger, as the housing market revives.

What’s happening in factories across the U.S. is not simply a reversal of decades of outsourcing. If there was once a rush to push factories of nearly every kind offshore, their return is more careful; many things are never coming back. Levi Strauss used to have more than 60 domestic blue-jeans plants; today it contracts out work to 16 and owns none, and it’s hard to imagine mass-market clothing factories ever coming back in significant numbers—the work is too basic.

Appliance Park once used its thousands of workers to make almost every part of every appliance; today, every component GE decides to make in Louisville returns home only after a careful calculation that balances quality, cost, skills, and speed. Appliance Park wants to make its own dishwasher racks, because it can, and because the rack is an important part of the dishwasher experience for customers. But Appliance Park will likely never again make its own compressors or motors, nor is it going to build a microchip-etching facility.

Manufacturing employment will never again be as central to the U.S. economy as it was in the 1960s and ’70s—improvements in worker productivity alone ensure that. Back in the ’60s, Appliance Park was turning out 250,000 appliances a month. The assembly lines there today are turning out almost as many—with at most one-third of the workers.

All that said, big factories have a way of creating larger economies around them—they have a “multiplier effect,” in economic parlance. Revere Plastics Systems, one of GE’s suppliers, has opened a new factory just 20 minutes north of Appliance Park, across the Ohio River in Indiana, and has 195 people there working in three shifts around the clock. The manufacturing renaissance now under way won’t solve the jobs crisis by itself, but it could broaden the US economy, and help reclaim opportunities—and skills—that have been lost across the past decade or more.

Many offshoring decisions were based on a single preoccupation—cheap labor. The labor was so cheap, in fact, that it covered a multitude of sins in other areas. The approach to bringing jobs back has been much more thoughtful.  

It bodes well for the US economy and we consider it’s a trend for Australian investors to watch closely.