NAB Federal budget summary webcast 11 May 2011

I went to the Budget Breakfast yesterday hosted by NAB at Crown, Melbourne.  Whilst there weren't any BBQ stoppers the presentation/economic update given by NAB's Chief Economist, Alan Oster was useful.  His main message is that NAB's economic modelling is much the same as Treasury's.

Here is NAB's webcast: watch Alan Oster present his summary

View webcast (link opens in new window - you'll need to enter your name)

Budget 2011 - Based on Optimism & Tough as Tofu

The federal government’s anticipated return to Budget surplus in fiscal year 2012-13 is built on optimistic assumptions about the short-term strength of the economy that may not be achieved, says the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia.

The Institute’s tax counsel, Yasser El-Ansary, says the government is expecting the health of the non-mining sectors of the economy to rapidly improve over the next two years, but based on current indicators, there’s no guarantee that will happen. 
http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au/News-Media/Media-centre/2011/Return-to-surplus-built-on-optimistic-assumptions

A useful summary of the budget provisions has been prepared by the Institute together with Thomson Reuters:  https://www.charteredaccountants.com.au/~/media/Files/Industry%20topics/Tax/Current%20Issues/Federal%20budget/Weekly%20Tax%20Bulletin%20Special%20Budget%20Report%202011ICAA

"Tough as Tofu": Stephen Long, economics correspondent for the ABC commented on Budget night: 

The Government's found savings of $22 billion over the four years of the forward estimates, but there's only about $17 billion or so in genuine cuts to expenditure - the rest are tax increases and levies.
The reality is that, over the course of the forward estimates, the genuine cuts to expenditure are pretty much offset by increases in expenditure

See:  http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/10/3213131.htm?section=business